A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
